The election in Hungary could help curb the rightward shift in Europe, a researcher believes
The opposition in Hungary has a good chance of winning the election on April 12, according to researchers. This could have major consequences, both for Hungarians and for the rest of Europe.
Recently, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán invited people to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Hungary. The conference has become an important arena for politicians and speakers from the far right. Several of the speakers warned that Europe's population is being replaced by illegal Muslim immigrants.(Photo: Marton Monus / NTB)
If there is a change of power in Hungary, Viktor Orbán could be removed after 16 years in power.
This could have major significance for Hungarians. But it could also have major consequences for the rest of Europe, where far-right parties are gaining strength in many countries, according to Professor Nick Sitter.
If Hungary chooses a more democratic government, it will send a signal that the rightward shift is not an inevitable trend, but something that can be reversed, he believes.
"It shows that it's possible to push back against right-wing populism, even in its stronghold," he says.
Orbán tightened his grip
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Nick Sitter has a close connection to Hungary. He has personally experienced how Orbán has tightened his grip on civil society and academic freedom in the country.
In addition to being a professor of political economy at BI Norwegian Business School, he holds a part-time position as a professor of political science at the Central European University in Vienna.
When he started working there, the university was located in Budapest. When Orbán became prime minister for the second time in 2010, the university was gradually pushed out of the country.
Nick Sitter believes that the election in Hungary is very important politically in Europe and geopolitically in the relationship between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.(Photo: BI Norwegian Business School)
Hungarian and American university
"When Orbán returned to power, it became clear that his ambitions went beyond political control. He sought control over businesses, civil society, and the rule of law. At first, it hit the rule of law and the media hard, then the business sector. It took a bit longer to take control of civil society," says Sitter.
The Central European University was designed as both a Hungarian and an American university. Its profile was international and strongly focused on research on democracy.
The new Orbán government began to impose special requirements on the university. Among other things, they wanted to push back against liberal fields of study such as gender studies and critical research.
Was almost exiled
As long as Barack Obama was president of the United States, the American ambassador in Hungary managed to slow down Orbán's pressure on the university.
"But when Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, many of us realised that it was over. He had no interest in protecting American academia," says Sitter.
The Orbán government used an expedited procedure to pass a law that in practice made it impossible for the university to operate in Hungary.
The process lasted until 2020. Then the university moved most of its operations and nearly all teaching to Vienna.
"The university was almost exiled," says Sitter.
Thousands of students and academics demonstrated in Budapest when Orbán's government attacked their academic freedom at Central European University.(Photo: BERNADETT SZABO / NTB)
Formally a democracy
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Today, Hungary is formally a democracy.
The European Parliament, however, has stated that the country cannot be considered a full democracy, but rather a so-called 'electoral autocracy.' In other words, a country where elections exist, but which does not function as a liberal democracy.
Since 2010, Orbán and the Fidesz party have won all parliamentary elections without the opposition having a real chance of taking power.
For the first time in nearly two decades, the situation is now different.
The most important election in a generation
"This is the most important election in Hungary in a generation," says Terje Knutsen, a political scientist at the University of Bergen.
Hungary was the country that, under communism, was the most liberal, with extensive trade with Western Europe. It had a smooth transition from communism to a more Western system, he explains.
"The country deserved to become an EU member in 2004. But since 2010, most things have gone in the wrong direction under Orbán," he believes.
The Social Democrats completely discredited themselves in 2009-10, and it was Viktor Orbán's stated goal that they should never come to power again.
Terje Knutsen believes that the election on April 12 is the most important election in Hungary in a generation.(Photo: University of Bergen)
He has succeeded in that, but at the same time established an authoritarian state.
"He has hollowed out the rule of law and established a firm control over most media. He is also close to Putin," says Knutsen.
Confident – but not certain
The Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, appears to have a solid lead in independent opinion polls.
Polls conducted by more government-friendly think tanks or organisations show more favourable results for the government.
According to Knutsen, Magyar has so far avoided corruption scandals. Still, his ideological distance from Viktor Orbán is relatively small.
"He was a member of Orbán's party until 2024, when he left and exposed corruption. But he positions himself as more pro-European and identifies as a national liberal," he says.
Nick Sitter believes the opposition has a good chance of winning this election, but he is still not entirely convinced.
"Orbán has carefully reshaped the electoral system over many years, changing constituencies and adjusting the balance of power. According to independent Hungarian political scientists, the opposition needs to be at least 5-6 per cent ahead on election day to win a majority," he says.
Decline in the public sector
Opposition figures are targeting Orbán on issues like democratic backsliding, corruption, and the deterioration of the public sector.
"The core message is that a corrupt elite has taken full control of the country, while ordinary people are left with poor schools and hospitals," says Sitter.
Péter Magyar has travelled across the country holding public meetings, he explains.
"I attended one of them last summer. There were 200 people standing in 35-degree heat listening to him speak. He focused on what people actually care about: schools, hospitals, and the prices in stores. He has also focused on what makes the regime extremely unpopular: corruption and the fact that a small circle around Orbán and his family has become very wealthy," says Sitter.
Sitter says that Viktor Orbán has focused on one thing in this election campaign, namely the war in Ukraine.
"His message is simle: My opponent is a useful idiot for Brussels. He will take money from Hungary and give it to Zelensky, and he will send Hungarian soldiers to Ukraine," he says.
"These competing narratives reflect a deeply polarised country. But there is also a group of voters who say they are not entirely sure who to vote for," Sitter adds.
That uncertainty gives Orbán an opening to mobilise 'sofa voters' to his side. Sitter believes that by emphasising fears of war, he may be able to sway those still undecided.
"If I had to place a bet, I would bet that the opposition wins. Public dissatisfaction is so great that they have a real chance," he says.
Cheerleader for Europe's MAGA
Orbán has emerged as a leading figure and cheerleader for what Sitter calls 'Europe's MAGA movement,' a far-right network strongly inspired by Donald Trump's 'Make America Great Again.'
"They strongly oppose immigration. They are sceptical of EU bureaucracy and the 'elite in Brussels,' and they are critical of liberalism and climate policies, among other things. They also have more sympathy and less opposition towards Russia," he says.
Hungary has frequently used its EU veto power to block or delay major financial support packages for Ukraine.
"Orbán often acts as a brake on sanctions against Russia and funding for Ukraine. Sometimes he firmly applies the brakes; other times he uses the threat as a bargaining tool," says Sitter.
A version of MAGA (Make America Great Again) has fully arrived in Europe. Will the election in Hungary act as a brake on the shift to the right?(Photo: INQUAM PHOTOS / TUDOR PANA / NTB)
A sigh of relief
Sitter emphasises that the election carries major political and geopolitical weight, especially for relations between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.
Terje Knutsen believes the EU would breathe a sigh of relief if Magyar is elected.
Like Sitter, he believes Magyar has a real chance of winning.
"I think many in Budapest and the larger cities want change. But Orbán's nationalist tone resonates strongly in rural areas. This will likely be an election between city and countryside. If he manages to mobilise the conservative countryside, he could win," says Knutsen.
A win for Tisza and Magyar could signal a fresh start – not just domestically, but also in Hungary’s relationship with Europe, according to Knutsen.
"It remains to be seen what EU policy under Prime Minister Magyar would look like. But it would almost certainly be better than Orbán's veto-driven approach," he says.
