The silver tsunami: "I was very surprised," says economist
Older people make up an increasingly larger part of the population, which is causing concern around the world. But in Norway, a researcher sees that some things are going better than feared.
The increase in municipal spending caused by the growing elderly population could end up being far lower than many have feared.(Stock photo: Gorm Kallestad / NTB)
2026 will mark the peak in the rise of elderly people in Norway. This year alone, the country will gain 20,000 more residents over the age of 80.
However, the demand for additional care staff in municipalities will likely be much lower than the number often mentioned in political debates, according to an economist.
Too pessimistic
The economist Steinar Juel from the liberal think tank Civita is now challenging the ongoing debate about elderly care in Norway.
In short, his argument is that the elderly in Norway are much healthier than they were a few years ago. At the same time, more of them are living at home rather than in nursing homes.
Annonse
"Elderly people are living longer and are becoming healthier," Juel tells Science Norway.
He explains that when health bureaucrats and politicians have made their calculations, they have often assumed that future trends will simply continue in the same way as before.
"They have treated the care needs of elderly people as something constant, assuming we will still need the same amount of healthcare staff per user as in the past. But that doesn't seem likely," says Juel.
Experts are fairly certain about how many more elderly people Norway will have in the future.
The increase will reach its highest point this year. There will still be growth afterwards, but at a slower pace.
Using data from Statistics Norway, Steinar Juel outlines two possible scenarios for how Norway's health and care services might deal with this development:
If elderly people require the same level of care as before, Norway will need 76,000 additional full-time positions in the care sector by 2040. By 2060, the workforce would have to double.
However, if the improving health of older people is taken into account, the need could be far smaller: perhaps no more than 18,000 new full-time positions by 2040. After that, the demand could even decline towards 2060.
Much lower need for assistance
"I was very surprised myself when I started looking more closely at these figures," says Juel.
What he found was that the proportion of people over 80 who require assistance from municipal care services has decreased significantly in recent years.
"If the elderly population in Norway continues to become healthier, the future demand for assistance will look very different from the figure that's often presented," he says.
"And if the shift towards helping people in their homes rather than in nursing homes continues, the need becomes even smaller," he adds.
Annonse
Steinar Juel is an economist and works at the think tank Civita. He has previously been chief economist at Nordea.(Photo: CF-Wesenberg / kolonihaven.no)
Home care instead of nursing homes
According to Juel, providing assistance to elderly people at home is far less resource-intensive – and cheaper – for municipalities.
He points to some simple figures:
One full-time position in a nursing home serves one elderly person.
One full-time position in home care services can serve around seven elderly people.
"As the number of residents over 80 keeps growing, municipalities have responded by raising the threshold for admission to nursing homes," he says. "The time elderly people spend in nursing homes is becoming increasingly shorter."
In other words, municipalities are addressing the ageing population mainly by expanding home care services rather than building more nursing home spaces. Families are also providing more care themselves.
Juel adds that there are, of course, limits to how far municipalities can go in restricting access to nursing homes.
Already today, this policy is difficult for many users and their relatives.
It is much more expensive for municipalities to keep elderly people in nursing homes than to provide them with care services at home.(Stock photo: Heiko Junge / NTB)
Several factors are missing
Liv Skomakerstuen Ødbehr is a researcher specialising in health and care services at the University of Inland Norway.
"It's very difficult to determine whether the need for care personnel will be much lower than many have feared," she says. "Even though the share of elderly people is growing and older adults generally have better health, we know that higher age often brings a number of complex conditions."
"With more people over the age of 80, we also know that the number of elderly people with dementia will increase," she adds.
Severe shortage of nurses
"I think Steinar Juel raises an important and interesting issue. However, there are many factors involved in this matter that he does not address in his notice," she says.
Like Juel, Ødbehr points out that those who now live at home are often in poorer health than before, partly because there are fewer nursing home places.
She also notes that the shortage of nurses is very large in home-based services. And she reminds us that municipal finances are strained.
"Very regrettable"
Many of those who previously received full-time places in nursing homes now live at home and are cared for by family members and home care nurses. Elderly people who get places in assisted living facilities and sheltered housing are typically very frail and require a great deal of assistance.
"The real question is whether elderly people are now receiving adequate and safe care," she says.
Ødbehr believes municipalities across Norway will likely continue to make significant cuts in the number of nursing home places.
"Given the sharp rise in the number of elderly people we are seeing in 2026, this is very regrettable for those who rely on public health services. At the same time, it places heavy demands on home care services and may also increase pressure on specialist healthcare through readmissions and other types of follow-up," she says.
More people will live with cancer without dying from it
Anders Barstad studies living conditions and quality of life at Statistics Norway.
"It's true that the overall health of older people has improved, but the trend is not entirely straightforward," he says. "Many more elderly people will develop dementia, even though the age-adjusted incidence is declining. Dementia also differs from other diseases in that it requires particularly high levels of staff and resources."
Barstad also points out that Norway will not only see growth in the number of people over 80, but also a rising number of people aged 90 and above. In the past, only the healthiest individuals reached that age. In the future, reaching the age of 90 may become much more common.
"There is reason to believe that the disease burden in this age group will be higher in 2050 than it is today. For example, more people will live with cancer without dying from it," he says.
Liv Skomakerstuen Ødbehr is a researcher at the University of Inland Norway. Anders Barstad is a researcher at Statistics Norway.(Photos: Private / Statistics Norway)
He also warns about the risks of understaffing in care services.
"Already today we see that wealthier municipalities can outbid poorer ones when competing to recruit nurses. At the same time, people with strong financial resources are increasingly able to purchase care services privately rather than relying on an overloaded and underfunded public care system," he says.
Elderly people are losing the fight for resources
Barstad is not convinced that the reduced use of care services among the elderly can simply be interpreted as a sign that their their health is improving.
"We don't know that," he says.
"Evidence suggests that resources in elderly care are increasingly directed towards the most frail individuals. Elderly people seem to be losing in the competition for resources compared to the younger users," says Barstad.
He adds that there are also signs that full-time positions are increasingly directed towards strictly medical needs, while psychosocial needs are being deprioritised.
"It's no longer the case that healthcare staff can simply sit down and have a cup of coffee with a patient," he says.
Finally, Barstad also notes that future generations of elderly people will have fewer children. That makes it unlikely that family-provided care will increase beyond today's level. In particular, many men will reach old age without having children.
