Out of 70 convicted spies in Europe, 47 were linked to Russia, according to new research from the Swedish Defence Research Agency.
"Russia considers itself to be in a conflict with the West and has given its intelligence and security services significant leeway," Tom Røseth tells Science Norway.
He is an associate professor in intelligence studies at the Norwegian Defence University College and a former researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.
In the Swedish study, the researchers analyse open cases involving people convicted of espionage in Europe between 2008 and 2024. The researchers have tried to determine who is recruited, how they are recruited, how they operate, and what motivates them.
Tom Røseth says that those who recruit spies are skilled at making the recruits feel valued.(Photo: Torbjørn Kjosvold / Norwegian Armed Forces)
Wants a new security order
Annonse
According to the Swedish researchers, several European national security services consider Russia to be the country with the most extensive intelligence activities.
Røseth agrees.
"There are many boots on the ground from Russia. That's why they rank so high in the study's statistics. They are eager to be present," he says. "Operating under diplomatic cover has become more difficult after more than 500 Russian diplomats were expelled from Europe. As a result, they rely on alternative methods such as espionage."
He points out that this presence reflects Russia's strategic priorities.
"Russia focuses on defence and infrastructure and tries to recruit sources that can provide insight into strategy, politics, and technology," says Røseth.
"They are looking for information that can give them an advantage and promote Russian interests – by creating divisions among allies, weakening support for Ukraine, and polarising Western societies so that they are less united. They also want the Americans out of Europe, which would strengthen Russia's position," he says.
Røseth explains that the goal is a new security order in Europe in which Russia has a far stronger role than today.
"The war in Ukraine is a tool in this, and the outcome could give Russia greater influence over European security policy," he says.
Money and ego as motivation
The Swedish study is based on interviews and open sources about 70 people convicted of espionage in Europe.
The researchers find that the average age of those convicted is 48, but the range is large – from 21 to 82 years old. The majority are men.
"It's often young people who are struggling and frustrated, which makes them easier to recruit through social media," says Røseth.
The Swedish researchers write that the motivations of spies vary, but they align with what is known as the MICE model: money, ideology, coercion, and ego.
More than half of the convicted spies received financial compensation, the study shows.
Røseth believes that money and the thrill of involvement are the most significant factors in recruitment.
"Recruiters are also very skilled at making thir targets feel valued. They appeal to the ego," he says.
Røseth believes that ideological motivation plays a smaller role.
"Russia is less appealing when it comes to political beliefs, but there are clearly still groups in Norway and Europe that can be recruited, especially in closed echo chambers on social media," he says.
The research also shows that some are recruited through coercion, often involving threats.
"In Ukraine, we see many cases where people are forced to cooperate. Either because they have family ties to Russia or because they are first lured into carrying out actions they believe are unrelated to Russian intelligence," the researcher says.
"Once they are involved, the handlers can use information against them. A key feature is that recruiters do not always identify themselves as Russian intelligence," he says.
Only the tip of the iceberg
The study only includes cases that resulted in convictions, meaning the true scale of espionage is likely much larger.
Røseth points out that legislation in many countries reflects a different era, when suspects almost had to be caught red-handed.
"That's not how espionage works today," says Røseth.
Modern espionage largely takes place digitally, the study finds.
"Encrypted apps are now used, making it nearly impossible to trace or prove activities. It's therefore very difficult to convict spies," says Røseth. "What we see is only the tip of the iceberg."
Røseth explains that uncovering espionage requires targeted counterintelligence work.
"This involves uncovering communication and coordination between Russian handlers and residents in Europe, as well as following up on suspicious cases. It's also important to make the public more aware that this type of activity is becoming more common in the increasingly tense security situation we are facing," he says.
