Experts: The rise of the far right will change European politics
The far-right surge is not merely sweeping across Europe, it's starting to take hold. Analysts believe European politics may be heading for its greatest transformation in more than a century.
In Germany, the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the country's largest party, according to opinion polls. German authorities have labelled parts of the party as 'far-right.'(Photo: AP / NTB)
NTB .NTB.NTB .Norwegian News Agency
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"There's a political shift underway in Europe now, without a doubt. It could have a major impact on how the EU and Europe organise themselves. To think otherwise is naive," intellectual historian and Europe expert Tarjei Skirbekk tells the Norwegian news agency NTB.
In Brussels, Janis Emmanouilidis nods in recognition at the statement. He leads the research work at the think tank European Policy Centre (EPF).
"This is already affecting the EU," he says.
Full momentum
Support for the new wave of right-wing populist and nationalist parties in Europe has never been higher. Today, such parties hold power in seven of the EU's 27 member states: Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Finland, Slovakia, and Croatia.
Annonse
What many of these parties have in common is a deep-rooted scepticism towards the EU. A harder line on migration and crime, along with resistance to climate policies, are also common traits.
In France and Germany, the far-right parties National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) now hold a clear lead in the polls.
The Netherlands will hold elections at the end of October, and the largest party in the polls is Geert Wilders' far-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).
In Denmark, attention has turned to the Danish People’s Party’s return to the political stage, the Danish newspaper Politiken writes, which has been highlighting the right-wing surge in a series of articles. And in Sweden, Portugal, Poland, and here in Norway, such parties are now the second largest.
The queen of the French right, Marine Le Pen, and her party National Rally are clearly leading in the polls in France. Le Pen herself has been stripped of the right to run for election.(Photo: Alain Jocard, AP, NTB)
Snowball effect
Emmanouilidis describes the trend as a snowball gathering speed down a steep slope. It will be difficult to stop.
"I fear the far right has a strong chance of seizing power in several key EU countries," he says, listing Germany, France, and Poland.
He points out that this will pose a major challenge for the EU. These parties share a common goal: to weaken the EU and return more power to the nation-states.
"The EU as an institution will be weakened, and European countries – all of which are small in a global context – will become more dependent on large nations, capital, and tech companies," says Skirbekk.
Vicious circle
The EU is built on liberal values such as human rights and freedom of expression. At its core lies the belief that collective action can achieve more – particularly when it comes to reducing climate emissions.
But a weakening of the union could open the door for authoritarian forces, warns Emmanouilidis.
He explains that he is increasingly concerned that the EU is struggling to deal with the challenges it faces, which fuels narratives that the EU does nothing. He notes that this strengthens the far right and reduces the willingness to invest political capital in the EU, creating a vicious circle.
A once-in-a-century event
Annonse
French populism researcher Laurenz Guenther at the Toulouse School of Economics believes that what we are seeing in Europe now can be called a once-in-a-century event.
"The massive rise of right-wing populism is a phenomenon rarely seen in politics. This is a truly transformative moment," he tells Politiken.
NUPI researcher Øyvind Svendsen believes the EU is now under threat from within.
'The EU's future is more uncertain than it has been for a long time,' he writes in his new book Fellesskap i fare (Community in danger).
Svendsen notes that the rightward shift – both within member states and, crucially, within the EU parliament – is undermining the EU's ability to make decisions. As a result, political divides are deepening.
A failed system
Last year, Tarjei Skirbekk released his book Politisk oppbrudd? (Political upheaval?), exploring the collapse of Europe’s once-dominant moderate parties. These parties, long at the centre of power, have failed, he argues.
"What people fundamentally want is security. But these parties have not managed to deliver that," he says.
According to Skirbekk, two main forces are driving voters into the arms of far-right parties: high immigration and the rising cost of living. Many working-class people have been pushed out of stable employment into precarious jobs, while the middle class has shrunk.
High inflation, soaring energy prices, and low economic growth are compounding the problem.
"The major parties don't seem to grasp the gravity of what many people are going through," says Skirbekk.
