Last year, only one third as many labour immigrants arrived cameto Norway as a decade ago. Much of the decline is linked to Poland’s economic success, as well as Norway’s weakened currency.
Immigrants have become the Norwegian working class.(Photo: Jarl Fr. Erichsen / NTB)
"As of today, there are about 217,000 labour immigrants from Eastern and Central Europe in Norway, roughly the size of Trondheim's population," Professor Johan Fredrik Rye recently said during a Fafo Institute for Labour and Social Research seminar on labour immigration.
But something dramatic is about to happen.
From 2023 to 2024, labour immigration to Norway dropped by around 30 per cent, according to Statistics Norway and Fafo.(Photo: Jarl Fr. Erichsen / NTB)
The Poles are going home
Poland has long been the largest source of labor immigrants to Norway.
Just 10-15 years ago, unemployment in Poland was high, and among those who had work, many experienced that their wages barely covered their needs.
Annonse
Now Poland is about to overtake Japan in purchasing power per person, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook. Unemployment is down to just 3 per cent.
Poland's economic success, with a tripling of GDP per capita over the last 30 years, is closely linked to the country's EU membership. No other country has received more support from the EU in recent decades.
Norway’s weakening krone has also played a role. Over the past ten years, it has weakened by over 40 per cent against the Polish zloty.
The most educated are the ones leaving
In a new study, researchers Marianne Tønnesen, Amelie Constant, and Astri Syse at OsloMet analysed data from around 300,000 labour immigrants who have come to Norway. They found that those with the highest levels of education are the most likely to leave Norway again.
The immigrants who were supposed to manage on their own
But there may be more reasons than just economic ones for why labour immigrants don't want to stay in Norway.
"For 20 years, we have thought that 'work equals integration'," said Fafo researcher Anne Mette Ødegård during the seminar. "Our experiences show that this is not the case."
Labour immigrants from the EU have had little access to the integration measures offered to refugees and other immigrant groups. They have received no introduction course to Norway and have had no right to Norwegian language training.
"The labour immigrants from the EU have been called 'the immigrants who were supposed to manage on their own.' But the knowledge we have today suggests that this has hindered integration for many," said Ødegård.
Hard jobs and low wages
Sociology professor Johan Fredrik Rye from the University of Oslo pointed out during the seminar that immigrants increasingly fill the physically demanding, low-paid jobs with limited career opportunities.
"A consistent finding in our research is that many labour immigrants feel like 'second-class citizens' in Norway. They participate in society, but they don't feel fully integrated," he said.
Europe competes for the same workforce
The day Norway once again gains momentum in building new housing, while industry, health, and care services are calling for more employees – where will the labour force come from?
Poland has now become a country that labour immigrants travel to – not from.
Annonse
Fafo researcher Anne Mette Ødegård stated in an op-ed on forskersonen.no this summer that there is now a shortage of skilled labour in most of Europe. A full 99 per cent of all businesses in the EU report difficulty recruiting qualified workers.
"All of Europe has demographic challenges and is competing for the same labour force," Ødegård said during the seminar. "That makes integration even more important. If we want people to both come and stay."
