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Propaganda researcher on the Greenland threats:
"This could be the goal"
"We absolutely must take this seriously," says researcher.
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US President Donald Trump says he wants to take Greenland for reasons related to American security. He claims that without Greenland, the US would be vunerable to threats from China and Russia.
Is this just propaganda, or real threats?
Paul Buvarp, a researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, believes Trump's portrayal of the security situation is not grounded in reality. Buvarp has researched influence operations, disinformation, and propaganda.
"That Russia and China pose major threats to Greenland, as Trump claims, is not something the rest of us have seen," he says.
He also points out that the US already has military facilities, bases, and surveillance in Greenland through an agreement from 1951.
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"That's why this can be interpreted as a form of propaganda," he says.
Must be taken seriously
Buvarp says it's hard to predict what consequences may follow from what we're now seeing unfold between NATO allies.
"But we absolutely must take this seriously," he says.
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Buvarp explains that in classic propaganda, the goal was often to persuade or mobilise people.
He believes Trump is creating uncertainty and testing how far he can go without consequences, something that makes cooperation more difficult. That may be the goal, the researcher believes.
"When statements mainly create confusion, reactions, and unease, it's a sign that the goal is the unease itself, not the content," says Buvarp.
Europe being framed as weak
"Do you think Trump is deliberately trying to split Europe?"
"It's hard to say whether the goal is to split Europe directly. But these kinds of statements fit neatly into a narrative Trump – and parts of American politics – have already promoted: That Europe is fragmented, weak, and incapable of taking responsibility for its own security," says Buvarp.
Less than a year ago, JD Vance stood on stage in Munich talking about a Europe in decline.
"The same message is repeated in the US' new national security strategy. It criticises a dysfunctional Europe instead of encouraging vigilance towards Chinese and Russian threats," says Buvarp.
He adds that statements like the ones Vance made often result in greater distance and weakened cooperation, even if creating division is not necessarily the explicit goal.
Russia is closer to Alaska than Greenland
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If there truly are threats from Russia or China in the Arctic, it would be more natural to stand together, according to Buvarp. In that case, he believes the US should try to work with Europe on larger military operations and security systems.
"The president shouts that Greenland is what stands between him and Russia. But if you look at the map, Russia is dangerously close – and much closer – to the state of Alaska," he points out.
Shifts attention away from other issues
Other researchers have also reacted to the focus Trump has placed on Greenland.
"If anyone is enjoying themselves right now, it's Russia's Putin and China's Xi," Svein Vigeland Rottem, a senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, recently told Science Norway.
He received support from Kari Aga Myklebost, a professor of Russian history at UiT The Arctic University of Norway. She believed Trump's actions towards Greenland divert attention from the most crucial security issue in Europe: the war in Ukraine.
"It's crucial not to be thrown off balance by Russia. Their goal is to weaken unity among Western countries, and thereby support for Ukraine," she says.
"Extremely damaging"
At the same time, Trump is receiving a lot of attention for his peace plans in Gaza and the attack on Venezuela.
"And it's fair to say there's a very tense situation in Minnesota, where he's carrying out the largest immigration operation in US history," says Buvarp.
"Could the Greenland statements be a way of shifting attention away from all this?"
"It's impossible to know what's going on in Trump's head," answers Buvarp. "But it's certainly a high price to pay just to change the focus a little."
Buvarp says it's impossible to know how far Trump is willing to go, or how much of what he says will actually be implemented.
"Still, it’s easy to see that these huge differences in how reality is perceived are extremely damaging for cooperation with Europe, NATO, and relationships within Europe itself," he says.
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Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
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