Iran experts fear the regime could become even more authoritarian
Israel and the United States hope their attacks on Iran will lead to regime change. Experts fear the opposite will happen: that Iran will end up with a more authoritarian regime.
A man with an Iranian flag looks at the damage to Gandhi hospital in Tehran, which was hit on Sunday. Several experts now fear that the country's regime could become even more authoritarian – instead of being overthrown, as the USA and Israel want.(Photo: Vahid Salemi, AP, NTB)
NTB .NTB.NTB .Norwegian News Agency
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Both Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have strongly implied that the air campaign and targeted killings of Iranian leaders are intended to pave the way for a regime change.
Iran experts describe the bombing and assassination tactics as extremely risky.
A partial strategy
Jo Jakobsen, professor of political science at NTNU's Department of Sociology and Political Science, believes that Israel and the United States have a kind of partial strategy regarding regime change.
"The idea seems to be to destroy and destabilise Iran by eliminating leaders and bombing facilities, but without sending in soldiers or special forces. By softening up Iran, they hope to motivate internal forces to overthrow the regime," says Jakobsen, who believes this is more of a hope than a concrete plan.
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Possible scenarios
He outlines three possible scenarios:
"The regime will continue as before, as we are already beginning to see. Iran is not a one-man operation, but is built on solid institutions. The powerful Revolutionary Guard is firmly on the regime's side. It's their job to ensure the regime survives," Jakobsen tells Norwegian news agency NTB.
"Iran could also move in an even more hardline direction. The Revolutionary Guard might gain even more power and perhaps even take over control. This would result in tighter political restrictions," he says.
A third scenario could be that internal forces in Iran exploit the situation and succeed in overthrowing the regime from within. This could mean that various ethnic groups within Iran see an opportunity for greater autonomy and independence and attempt to rebel, which could trigger a civil war. Ultimately, this could lead to chaotic upheavals, the dissolution of Iran, and large flows of refugees, Jakobsen fears.
Good at maintaining control
Marianne Hafnor Bøe, professor of religious studies at the University of Stavanger's Department of Cultural Studies and Languages, stresses that despite the uncertainty surrounding current events, the regime is very good at maintaining control.
"Over the weekend, there have been reports that the regime has cracked down hard on any sign of demonstrations or celebrations of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei," she says.
"Even though Khamenei has now been killed, the system is solid. Challenging the regime is no easy task, even in such a precarious situation as the regime now finds itself," she says.
More authoritarian?
Bøe also fears that the attacks could lead to an even more authoritarian regime.
"The Islamic Republic is facing its greatest crisis ever. It's under heavy pressure both internally and externally. But that also makes it extremely important for the regime to quickly appoint a new supreme leader. And it's unlikely to be a candidate representing a more moderate line," she believes.
"The danger is that it will become an even more authoritarian regime that will tighten its grip on the population even further," she says.
Weakened opposition
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Bøe states that the opposition in Iran has been significantly weakened in the aftermath of the recent protest waves.
"Those who might have emerged as strong leaders have been imprisoned, placed under house arrest, or killed. Internet and phone lines have been shut down, making mobilisation extremely difficult," she says.
Bøe says that much at this point is speculation, but she also believes civil war is a possible outcome.
"It will be important to keep an eye on what's happening in Iran's neighbouring areas, where armed groups are also present. We know very little about what's happening inside Iran, but several groups, including Kurds, may be willing to take up arms against a regime under intense pressure," she says.
"That said, I would not be surprised if the regime manage to survive this crisis as well. For now, the system's stability and deeply rooted power structures seem to be holding," she says.
Tight control
Pierre Razoux, director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), also believes that the state currently maintains tight control. He notes that in recent days, the authorities have cut internet access, closed universities, and deployed security forces in cities.
"Everything is being done to prevent protests," he tells the news agency AFP. He stresses that as long as the population is not convinced that the country's security forces are neutralised, they are unlikely to take to the streets again.
Iran experts point out that the Revolutionary Guard remains an extremely well-organised force with significant influence in Iranian society, politics, and the economy.
Razoux does not dismiss the possibility that the Revolutionary Guard could take power.
Prolonging the conflict?
Jo Jakobsen suggests that Iran will probably try to keep the war going for a long time to inflict the greatest possible costs, especially for the United States.
"Iran is militarily far inferior to the United States and Israel, but it's playing its strongest cards – namely attacks across the region. It is targeting oil facilities, hotels, and shipping routes. Air traffic has been halted in the region, and the stability of major financial hubs in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi), and Qatar is under threat," he says.
"Israel and the US have taken an enormous risk on behalf of Iran's population and the wider region. The danger is increased global unrest and instability in the global economy. And this situation could persist for quite some time," Jakobsen fears.
