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Will the USA or Russia try to take Svalbard? "With Trump, you never really know"
"If anyone is enjoying themselves right now, it's Putin and Xi," says researcher.
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"When the Norwegian government says we're facing the most serious security situation since World War II, it reflects a genuinely grave and serious reality," Kari Aga Myklebost tells Science Norway. She is a professor of Russian history at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.
Still, Myklebost does not believe that Norway is in danger of losing Svalbard to Russia.
"There's little reason to think that Russia, because of Trump's statements about Greenland, would openly use military force on Svalbard. They are unlikely to risk an open confrontation with NATO unless they are fully confident they can come out on top. And we're not at that point yet," she says.
In 1920, an agreement was made with several countries about Svalbard. The agreement was called the Svalbard Treaty and gives Norway full sovereignty over Svalbard.
At the same time, it grants certain rights to the other countries that signed the agreement, including Russia and the United States.
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"They can engage in economic and commercial activities. But everything is subject to Norwegian law," says Svein Vigeland Rottem, senior researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI).
That sovereignty also means responsibility: Norway must develop laws and regulations for Svalbard and make sure they are enforced.
"There's nothing suspicious or illegitimate about that, despite how Russian information campaigns attempt to portray it," says Myklebost.
Manipulation, but not confrontation
She says that Norwegian authorities have experienced a lot of pressure from Russia regarding Svalbard.
"They have challenged Norway's exercise of sovereignty on Svalbard, but always without going into direct confrontation," she says.
Myklebost researches Russian hybrid operations on Svalbard, including information warfare aimed at undermining Norway's position.
"Much of the tension surrounding Denmark and Greenland – and what has been happening around Svalbard for some time – is tied to Russian strategic communication and information warfare," she explains.
Myklebost's research shows that Russia constantly tests Norway's boundaries to provoke certain reactions.
These reactions are then used to create an impression that Norway is tightening its grip on Svalbard and violating the spirit of the Svalbard Treaty.
"The Kremlin portrays it as if Norway is taking liberties on Svalbard, but that's completely wrong," says Myklebost.
She also points out that Putin’s legitimacy as president is strongly linked to the idea of restoring Russia’s status as a great power. That ambition needs to be continuously reinforced, she argues, or he risks losing credibility at home.
For that reason, Myklebost believes the pressure from Russia will increase in the period ahead.
But does that mean they intend to take over Svalbard?
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"There has never been anything that has put the entire Svalbard Treaty at risk. I think most parties, especially in a tense situation like the one we have now, are interested in maintaining the status quo," says Rottem from FNI.
"Take it with a pinch of salt"
Rottem does not believe Svalbard is in danger of ending up in American hands either.
"From a strategic, economic, and political perspective, it would be unwise for the United States to bring Svalbard into the equation as well. But with Trump, you never really know," he says.
Earlier this week, Croatia's president, Zoran Milanović, suggested that the USA should take Svalbard instead of Greenland, according to Norwegian newspaper VG.
"I think you have to take it with a pinch of salt. It represents a lone voice, not a broader European political position," says Rottem.
He explains that there are strong opposing voices in the situation between Greenland and the United States that are also relevant here.
"The American public does not want the United States to carry out a military takeover of Greenland, and the same would certainly apply to Svalbard in such a situation," he says.
Other intentions
"But if anyone is enjoying themselves right now, it's Russia's Putin and China's Xi," says Rottem.
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Myklebost adds that all the talk about Greenland and division within NATO plays directly into Putin's interests.
"The Kremlin can simply sit back and observe how the situation unfolds," she says. "All the chaos surrounding Greenland and Svalbard pushes Europe's most urgent security issue – the war in Ukraine – into the background."
Myklebost believes a lot depends on whether European leaders manage to stand together.
"It's crucial not to be thrown off balance by Russia. Their goal is to weaken unity among Western countries, and thereby support for Ukraine," she says.
"Everything is relative"
Rottem argues that media coverage of both the Greenland and Svalbard issues is too narrow and focuses on the wrong things.
"My main complaint is that much of the debate is based on the wrong assumptions. Some people say 'this could happen now,' and that becomes the headlines. But it isn't really in line with the broader picture," he says.
Rottem describes the attention surrounding Svalbard as a non-issue.
"It's in Ukraine that people are dying in large numbers. I'm not saying the Arctic isn't important, but I'm just saying that everything is relative," he says.
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Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
Reference:
Myklebost et al. Hybrid threats in high latitudes: facing Russia on Svalbard,
The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, 2025.
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