On January 3, the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, was captured and flown to the United States, where he is expected to stand trial for narco-terrorism and other crimes.
In the wake of this, Donald Trump has again stated that the United States "needs Greenland." Does the attack in Venezuela cast these remarks in a new light?
"Both yes and no," says Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen.
He is a professor of Northern Studies at UiT The Arctic University of Norway and is from Denmark.
"Demonstrated extraordinary capabilities"
Annonse
"The United States has routinely used economic and military power in countries outside the West. In that sense, what the US has done to Venezuela is not new," he says.
What is new in the Greenland context is that the United States is openly threatening a close ally, the Kingdom of Denmark, in the way it is doing, the researcher explains.
"What's most troubling for Greenland and Denmark after Venezuela is the Trump administration's readiness to act openly, with little or no attempt to provide a justification under international law," he says.
This willingness to use force and to enforce publicly stated objectives will naturally cause deep concern in both Denmark and Greenland, he believes.
"The United States has also demonstrated extraordinary capabilities through its actions in Venezuela. Being able to abduct another country’s head of state in such a manner highlights substantial intelligence and military strength," he says.
Nicolas Maduro on his way to a courthouse in Manhattan on January 5.(Photo: REUTERS / Adam Gray)
Cat and mouse
What's happening between the US and Denmark resembles a cat playing with a mouse, says Bertelsen. There is a large power imbalance.
"The United States is so powerful that it can largely treat the Kingdom of Denmark and Europe however it wants. They can threaten and humiliate," says Bertelsen.
For that reason, Denmark must carefully calibrate its responses and avoid provoking Trump, according to Bertelsen.
"Could the United States actually take control of Greenland if it chose to?"
"They could do it in an afternoon if they wanted," he says.
"What could Denmark and Greenland do then?"
"Nothing. If the few soldiers and police in Greenland were to resist, it would be completely pointless losses," he says.
"Unlikely"
Annonse
Paal Sigurd Hilde is a professor at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies. His areas of expertise include NATO and the High North.
He says that the situation in Greenland is very different from the one in Venezuela.
Hilde does not believe that it has become more likely that the US will use force to take over Greenland in the wake of the operation in Venezuela.
"You should never say never with Trump, but the consequences would be enormous and would also be extremely damaging to the United States," he says.
"The key difference is that few people would mourn Maduro or the regime he represented. Greenland is something entirely different. The Kingdom of Denmark is an American ally and has been for several decades," he says.
According to Hilde, attacking an ally and attempting to annex allied territory would have far-reaching consequences.
"At that point, no country could trust the United States anymore," he says.
Paal Sigurd Hilde is a researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.(Photo: Torgeir Haugaard / Norwegian Armed Forces)
"Would undermine the international legal order"
Hilde explains that America's status as a superpower is tied to the fact that it has allies around the world.
"If the US starts turning against its own allies, the system collapses. NATO would likely stop functioning as long as Trump remains president," he says.
If one NATO country attacks another, the organisation becomes meaningless, Hilde notes.
An attack on Greenland is therefore unlikely. But if it were to happen, how could Denmark and Europe respond?
"I don't think anyone would use military force. I don't think Denmark would use weapons to defend Greenland, because that's a fight they cannot win," he says.
"There would likely be loud protests, a severing of ties with the US, and the matter would be taken to an international court. Denmark would then likely seek support from others, and all indications are that it would receive that support," he says.
Such an attack would probably also affect global security.
"If the US believes it can simply take Greenland because it has an interest in it, that would reinforce Putin's arguments in Ukraine and, looking ahead, China's arguments regarding Taiwan," explains Hilde.
"It would fundamentally undermine the international legal order – an order that the US itself has largely built after World War II. That is why any reasonable person in the US would see this as madness," he says.
Close ally
Denmark has been a loyal ally of the United States, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, says Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen. Denmark also recently bought F-35 fighter jets from the US.
During the Cold War, Denmark largely accommodated American wishes regarding Greenland, he says.
Bertelsen therefore finds it difficult to understand why Donald Trump wants control over Greenland.
"From a political science and economic perspective, it makes no sense. Denmark has done everything to please the US regarding Greenland. If the United States wants more military bases in Greenland, it's hard to imagine Denmark and Greenland saying no," he says.
Bertelsen suspects that the reason may have more to do with psychology than political science: For example, that Trump wants to expand American territory or that he was provoked by Denmark's refusal to sell Greenland.
Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen is a professor of Northern Studies at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.(Photo: Stina Guldbrandsen / UiT)
Not threatened by Russia and China
In an interview with The Atlantic, Trump also said that Greenland is "surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships."
"That's just nonsense," says Paal Sigurd Hilde.
He says there are no indications that other states pose a security threat to Greenland – except the United States.
"If Russia or China were to land troops in Nuuk, they would be unable to supply them. Denmark and others could then simply close the airspace, and these forces would be stranded," he says.
Hilde also believes the US would likely be allowed to expand its military facilities in Greenland if it wished.
