"I think this regime is nearing its end. The real question is how bloody the transition will be, and to what extent the regime is willing to kill its own people," says Dag Henrik Tuastad, a Middle East researcher at the University of Oslo.
Large demonstrations against the regime are taking place across the country.
Getting information out of Iran has become increasingly difficult after the authorities shut down the internet on January 8.
On Monday, the Norwegian human rights group Iran Human Rights reported that at least 648 protesters have been killed, while the news organisation Reuters cites an Iranian official saying that around 2,000 people have died.
"Demonstrations on a scale we have never seen before"
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"These are demonstrations on a scale we have never seen before. This is the greatest threat the regime has faced in its entire history," says Tuastad.
The protests are said to have started at a large market in Iran's capital Tehran.
"Bazaar merchants have traditionally been strong supporters of the regime, but this time they were the ones who launched the first protests. That sparked feelings that people have been carrying for a long time," says Bjørn Olav Utvik, professor emeritus at the University of Oslo.
Bjørn Olav Utvik is professor emeritus at the University of Oslo.(Photo: Olaf Christensen / University of Oslo)
Utvik points to four main reasons behind the unrest: dissatisfaction with the economy, lack of political freedom, opposition to the oppression of women, and the oppression of minorities.
"When protests and riots start, all these issues often boil over at the same time," he says.
The online newspaper Bloomberg reports that food prices rose by 70 per cent in 2025 compared to the previous year.
"United in its opposition"
"What defines this protest movement is that it's united in its opposition to the regime," says Tuastad.
In Iran, it is essentially 'the people' who are protesting. Many describe the uprising as a grassroots movement – one without a clear leader or shared political views. What the protesters do share, however, is the desire to dismantle the clerical rule.
"The people want freedom. A democratically governed Iran. A system where the clergy does not hold power," explains Tuastad.
The lack of identifiable leaders within the grassroots movement has drawn attention.
"The demonstrators are united in a common protest against the current regime, but it's hard to tell whether they have a clear plan for what to do if the regime falls," says Utvik.
He adds that in such an oppressive regime, much of the opposition's organising will inevitably take place in secret.
"We have to assume there's a lot we don't know," he says.
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The exiled prince
During the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was overthrown. At that time, Iran was also an authoritarian dictatorship with minimal political freedom. Since then, his son, Reza Pahlavi, has lived in exile in the United States.
He is now being mentioned as a potential candidate to take over the leadership in Iran. Through social media, he has urged demonstrators to take to the streets and fight for a new Iran.
"In some cases, you hear slogans supporting Pahlavi. Iran's flag was changed after the 1979 revolution, but now people are bringing back the flag from Shah Reza Pahlavi's time," Utvik explains.
Pahlavi's possible involvement in any new regime is still controversial.
"I’m somewhat doubtful about how extensive this support really is, and about how likely it is that he will actually succeed in taking on a leadership role," says Utvik.
Tuastad is also sceptical of Pahlavi as a new leader.
Dag Henrik Tuastad is an associate professor in Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oslo.(Photo: Ellen Evju Jahr / University of Oslo)
"What Iran needs right now is a new political system, not another individual stepping in to rule," he says.
Tuastad believes there is another reason why attention is being directed towards the exiled prince.
"People rally around symbols that represent opposition to the regime. Pahlavi can function as a symbol of change, but not as someone who truly unites Iran," he argues.
Will the regime fall?
"What typically happens during a revolution is that those in power begin to split, but we haven't really seen that yet," says Bjørn Utvik.
The authorities have taken a hard line against demonstrators, with few signs of internal disagreement.
One possible strategy to ease public dissatisfaction while still holding on to power could be to improve the country's economic situation.
But Utvik believes that American sanctions make it difficult for the regime to deliver meaningful improvements in the short term.
"Solving the economic problems would take a long time. And right now, I don't think people have any faith in such promises, because they've heard them before," he says.
He explains that if members of the power structure were to propose meeting some of the protesters' demands, it could trigger disagreement within the regime itself.
"At best, this could open space for negotiations, where the opposition can push for a gradual and peaceful transition to a new system," says Utvik. "But I doubt the regime will fall right now."
Since the regime has taken a hard line so far, the hope lies in the security and military forces switching sides.
"The hope is that the security forces stand with the people, instead of using weapons against them," says Tuastad.
An uncertain future
Iranian authorities have claimed the situation is 'under control.' But that does not necessarily mean the struggle is over.
Both Utvik and Tuastad agree on this.
"It's too early to say the protests are under control. Protests often come in waves. They can be temporarily suppressed through brutal use of force, but the dissatisfaction behind them does not disappear," says Tuastad.
Utvik points to an Iranian mourning tradition that may shape how the protests develop.
40 days after someone is killed, a commemoration is held.
"The 1979 revolution followed exactly this kind of pattern. There were huge demonstrations, then a violent crackdown, and many people died," he says.
In 1979, these commemorations repeatedly triggered new protest waves. The uprising continued for a year, returning again and again in cycles.
"It may well be that demonstrations die down now, but then return even stronger in a month," says Utvik.
