Peace Research Institute Oslo: Historically high level of conflict in the world
Last year, the world experienced 61 armed conflicts, the highest number in over 70 years, according to a new report.
Eastern Congo has been plagued by conflict for decades. Rebels supported by Rwanda (pictured) now control large areas, including the city of Goma.(Photo: AP, NTB)
According to Siri Aas Rustad, PRIO’s research director and lead author of the report, the rise in conflicts marks not a temporary surge, but a structural shift.
"The world is now far more violent and fragmented than it was ten years ago," she states.
A deadly year
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In 2024, conflicts and wars claimed around 129,000 lives, making it the fourth deadliest year since the Cold War ended in 1989.
This level of violence significantly exceeds the average of the past 30 years, largely due to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine claimed an estimated 76,000 lives last year, the majority of them soldiers. Israel's attacks in Gaza claimed 26,000 lives, the majority of them civilians, according to the report.
The death toll in Gaza has more than doubled since.
Ukraine and Gaza are only part of a broader trend, the report stresses.
In more than half of all affected countries, multiple armed conflicts are occurring simultaneously – often with the state itself as one of the warring parties.
In nine countries, there were three or more active armed conflicts in 2024.
Weak states, cross-border militant activity, and local tensions lead to overlapping crises that are increasingly difficult to control and resolve, PRIO states.
Militant groups
The report also reveals increased activity from militant groups in several countries.
The extremist Islamist group IS was active in at least 12 countries last year, while the Islamist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) operated in 5 West African countries.
"Conflicts are no longer isolated. They are layered, international, and increasingly difficult to end," says Rustad.
Increased isolationism
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She expresses concern about growing isolationism in the USA and other Western countries.
"The world can't afford to turn its back," says Rustad.
"Choosing isolationism in the face of escalating global violence is the wrong response. It risks long-term consequences for people everywhere," she says.
"A dramatic development"
Håvard Mokleiv is director of knowledge at the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad). He shares Rustad's concern.
"It's a dramatic development we've been witness to in recent years," he says.
"Poverty is a breeding ground for conflict, and conflict breeds poverty. In addition, we see that war is not short-lived. The average conflict in 1990 lasted about 16 years. Now they last over 30 years," says Mokleiv.
He believes the path forward lies in combating poverty and strengthening states and civil society.
"Several countries are now cutting their aid budgets. Even though Norway continues to contribute significantly, the global community is being forced to manage more crises with fewer resources," he says.
In disarray
Africa recorded the highest number of conflicts in the past year, with 28 state-based conflicts – nearly twice as many as ten years ago.
Asia followed with 17 such conflicts, the Middle East with 10, Europe with 3, and the Americas with 2.
"Our analyses show that the global security situation is not improving – it's deteriorating. Without sustained international engagement, the risk to civilian lives, regional stability, and international order will only grow," warns Rustad.
