Could more than 2 million Palestinians really be forced out of Gaza?
"Parts of the Israeli government have an explicit goal of expelling the Palestinians," says a history professor.
Israel has levelled large parts of the Gaza Strip and killed at least 53,500 Palestinians over the past 19 months, according to Palestinian health officials.(Photo: AP,Mohammad Abu Samra, NTB / Marte Dæhlen)
On May 19, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to take full control of the Gaza Strip.
Just a day earlier, Reuters reported that a large-scale ground invasion was underway in both the northern and southern parts of Gaza.
"We’re witnessing an extreme escalation in Israel’s warfare. With this new ground invasion, the mass killings continue with full force. Israel has ordered the evacuation of Khan Younis, but there's nowhere for the Palestinians to go," Hilde Henriksen Waage tells Science Norway.
Khan Younis is a city in the southern part of the Gaza Strip with a large refugee camp.
"This is the mass killing of civilians, and Europe and the USA are allowing it to happen," says Waage.
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She is a history professor at the University of Oslo and a professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
Genocide?
Waage refrains from calling the situation in Gaza a genocide. As a historian, she says she prefers not to enter the territory of international law experts.
"The moment we start discussing the term genocide, we enter a complex legal debate," she says.
"What we do know is that genocide doesn’t require killing everyone. Intent alone is enough. The International Criminal Court has agreed to consider the case," she says.
"A goal of expelling the Palestinians"
In the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, nearly 1,200 people were killed and around 250 were taken hostage. Nearly 150 of them have since been returned to Israel alive.
Many hostages have been killed. According to Israeli authorities, 58 remain in Gaza though Israeli intelligence believes some of them may also be dead.
Israel's response to the attack has led to at least 53,000 Palestinian deaths so far, according to Palestinian health officials.
"After the horrific Hamas attack, Israel formed the most extreme right-wing government in its history. Parts of the government have an explicit goal of expelling the Palestinians. The attack by Hamas gave them the opening to try to put those plans into action," says Waage.
She explains that such plans go back to the origins of Zionism, the movement that began in the late 1800s with the goal of establishing a Jewish homeland.
But is it realistic that more than 2 million Palestinians could be driven out of Gaza?
No country wants to take in refugees
"Yes, it's actually a realistic scenario," says Waage.
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In 1948, during the war that led to the establishment of Israel, around 750,000 Palestinians were displaced from their homes. Most of these refugees ended up in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the encyclopaedia Britannica.
Waage explains that no country in the region has agreed to accept 2 million Palestinian refugees, despite the USA offering financial aid and other incentives to those who might consider it.
"The most likely candidate at the moment is Libya, despite being torn apart by civil war," says Waage.
She believes this could be one of the final efforts to find a country willing to take in the Palestinian population.
Palestinians are now fleeing from the city of Khan Younis.(Photo: REUTERS / Hatem Khaled / NTB)
"One is that the Palestinians do not want to become refugees once again. Another is that Egypt has no interest in housing Palestinian refugees. A third is that the global community does not want to see such a displacement take place," says Jensehaugen.
Things could get much worse
"Is the worst still to come for the Palestinians?"
"I'm glad I'm a historian and not a fortune teller. But at the moment, everything points to even greater suffering for the Palestinians – unless the USA steps in to stop the war," says Waage.
The USA holds all the cards. Only the USA has the power, the means, the money, and the weapons to put an end to this terrible war, she says.
Up until now, they have shown a 'lack of will,' as Waage puts it.
"Donald Trump has allowed something no other president before him ever has: the mass killing of Palestinian civilians," she says.
Waage is clear that the key to a solution lies in a desk drawer in the Oval Office.
