Researchers: Europe could have stopped Israel's warfare in Gaza
Researchers believe European economic measures against Israel could have had a decisive impact, but point to historical reasons behind the West's reluctance to intervene.
"Israel would have immediately listened to the EU countries if they had gone for an economic boycott. The EU is Israel's largest trading partner, and it would have been completely devastating for the Israeli economy. But the EU cannot agree on this," says researcher and historian Hilde Henriksen Waage.
Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali, agrees.
"I believe the only thing that can really make Israel change course is concrete actions – not just mild or strong criticism," she writes to the Norwegian news agency NTB.
She believes the point where words alone have any effect has long since passed.
"What could actually make a difference, however, is changing Israel's incentives – making sure that continuing their current course comes at a real cost, through sanctions and an arms embargo," writes Tocci.
Her research fields include European foreign policy, the Middle East, and transatlantic relations.
Clear impact
The US provides the bulk of Israel's military support, but Tocci believes that even if 'only' Europe had acted, it would have made a difference.
"The answer is yes. Economically, the EU is Israel's most important trading partner. Militarily, Germany is Israel's second-largest weapons supplier, with Italy in third place. Germany's recent decision to stop its arms exports is already complicating Israel's plans to take control of Gaza," she writes.
Tocci then poses a pressing question:
"How many lives could have been saved if such measures had been implemented collectively, many months ago?"
Fear of Trump
Hilde Henriksen Waage believes the unpredictable factor is Donald Trump.
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"European leaders are so worried about their ties to the US that they don't dare challenge President Trump. Instead, they keep launching one ingratiating charm offensive after another toward the White House," she says.
Historical ties
Jacob Høigilt, professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Oslo, points to the historical relationship between European countries and Israel, which he believes makes it difficult to agree on a strong response to Israel's warfare in Gaza.
"The legacy of imperialism – the idea that Western countries were entitled to take what they wanted from others – underpins this. The Zionists who settled in Palestine were part of us, Northern Europeans," says Høigilt.
Waage adds that history is key to understanding today's dynamics.
"Ever since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, the US and Europe have been its strongest supporters. They've stood by Israel through thick and thin. Only in the past 20-30 years has support started to weaken in parts of Europe. Public opinion in many Western European countries has now shifted dramatically, but governments continue to support Israel," she says.
A glaring difference
Waage highlights the sharp contrast with the war in Ukraine, where European leaders queued to board trains to Ukraine to show their support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"We see no such line of European leaders travelling to Ramallah or Jerusalem, even though the atrocities and human suffering in Gaza are far worse. Instead, leaders limit themselves to condemnations and vague promises to support a Palestinian state – after it has been reduced to rubble," she says.
Waage believes that Israel’s leaders can sit comfortably in Jerusalem and laugh.
"European countries are undermining their own position. They speak with one voice when it comes to their own security interests, NATO, and Ukraine, but with a completely different voice when it comes to the suffering in Gaza," she says.
Yet she adds that these politicians are elected officials and need to listen to the public.
"They're trying to appease an increasingly critical public with condemning statements, but not with real actions that would have made a difference. The criticism is only for domestic use," she argues.
It took a long time
Høigilt notes that it took a long time for Europe to begin seeing issues from a Palestinian and Arab perspective.
"It was always us versus the Arabs. The idea that some lives are worth more than others is deeply ingrained in our history," he says.
He also highlights the unique burden of the Holocaust.
"The persecution of Jews is a European phenomenon. After World War II, a justified sense of guilt arose, which led to support for the establishment of the state of Israel and a willingness to overlook that it came at the expense of others living in the area. It was a grave injustice towards the Palestinian people – but they were easy to sacrifice, because they did not feel close to us," Høigilt believes.
A shameful chapter
"That said, many European politicians are genuinely horrified by what Israel has become," he says.
And then there's the US, which has always supported Israel. As long as the US is unwilling to do anything to stop Israel's warfare in Gaza, little will change, Høigilt thinks.
"But this period will undoubtedly be remembered as a shameful chapter in Western history," he says.
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Translated by Alette Bjordal Gjellesvik
Read the Norwegian version of this article on forskning.no
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